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2007/2008 Human Development Report

Egypt

The Human Development Index - going beyond income

Each year since 1990 the Human Development Report has published the human development index (HDI) which looks beyond GDP to a broader definition of well-being. The HDI provides a composite measure of three dimensions of human development: living a long and healthy life (measured by life expectancy), being educated (measured by adult literacy and enrolment at the primary, secondary and tertiary level) and having a decent standard of living (measured by purchasing power parity, PPP, income). The index is not in any sense a comprehensive measure of human development. It does not, for example, include important indicators such as gender or income inequality and more difficult to measure indicators like respect for human rights and political freedoms. What it does provide is a broadened prism for viewing human progress and the complex relationship between income and well-being.

The HDI for Egypt is 0.708, which gives the country a rank of 112^th out of 177 countries with data (Table 1).

Figure 1:
The human development index gives a more complete picture than income

This year’s HDI, which refers to 2005, highlights the very large gaps in well-being and life chances that continue to divide our increasingly interconnected world. By looking at some of the most fundamental aspects of people’s lives and opportunities it provides a much more complete picture of a country's development than other indicators, such as GDP per capita. Figure 2 illustrates that countries on the same level of HDI as Egypt can have very different levels of income.

Of the components of the HDI, only income and gross enrolment are somewhat responsive to short term policy changes. For that reason, it is important to examine changes in the human development index over time.

The human development index trends tell an important story in that aspect. Since the mid-1970s almost all regions have been progressively increasing their HDI score (Figure 2). East Asia and South Asia have accelerated progress since 1990. Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), following a catastrophic decline in the first half of the 1990s, has also recovered to the level before the reversal. The major exception is sub-Saharan Africa. Since 1990 it has stagnated, partly because of economic reversal but principally because of the catastrophic effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy.

Figure 2: HDI Trends

Human poverty in Egypt: focusing on the most deprived in multiple dimensions of poverty

The HDI measures the average progress of a country in human development. The Human Poverty Index for developing countries (HPI-1), focuses on the proportion of people below a threshold level in the same dimensions of human development as the human development index - living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent standard of living. By looking beyond income deprivation, the HPI-1 represents a multi-dimensional alternative to the $1 a day (PPP US$) poverty measure.

The HPI-1 value of 20.0 for Egypt, ranks 48^th among 108 developing countries for which the index has been calculated.

The HPI-1 measures severe deprivation in health by the proportion of people who are not expected to survive age 40. Education is measured by the adult illiteracy rate. And a decent standard of living is measured by the unweighted average of people without access to an improved water source and the proportion of children under age 5 who are underweight for their age. Table 2 shows the values for these variables for Egypt and compares them to other countries.

Fighting climate change

As a result of past emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), the world is now on course for future climate change. This year’s Human Development Report identifies 2ºC as the threshold above which irreversible and dangerous climate change will become unavoidable. It also explains why we have less than a decade to change course and start living within a sustainable global carbon budget identified at 14.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ (Gt CO₂) per annum for the remainder of the 21^st Century. Currently, emissions are running at twice this level. If these trends continue, the carbon budget will be set for expiry during the 2030's, setting in motion processes that can lead to temperature increases of 5ºC or above by the end of this century---roughly similar to temperature changes since the last ice age 10,000 years ago.

With 1.1% of the world's population, Egypt accounts for 0.5% of global emissions - an average of 2.3 tonnes of CO₂ per person. These emission levels are below those of Arab States (table 3). If all countries in the world were to emit CO₂ at levels similar to Egypt's, we would exceed our sustainable carbon budget by approximately 3%.

High-income OECD countries meanwhile lead the league of "CO₂ transgressors". With just 15% of the world’s population, they account for almost half of all emissions. If the entire world emitted like High-income OECD countries -an average of 13.2 tonnes of CO₂ per person, we would be emitting 6 times our sustainable carbon budget.

Egypt has signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol. As a non-Annex I Party to the Protocol, Egypt is not bound by specific targets for greenhouse gas emissions.